In an exclusive, The Louisiana Weekly has learned that prominent State Democratic leaders are actively courting State Senator Cheryl Grey to run against Republican Joseph Cao for the Second Congressional seat in 2010.  

            The Uptown African-American Democrat would produce a formidable challenge to Cao.  She is widely popular with Caucasian liberals, many of the whites who abandoned indicted incumbent William Jefferson for Cao, and obviously as an accomplished Black politician would have an appeal to African-American voters—who constitute 62% of the registered electorate.

            According to political consultant Cheron Brylski, “They are actively courting Cheryl…The idea is to unify behind one Black candidate.”

            Brylski noted, though, that Grey, just recently elected to her Senate seat in 2007, is quite “happy where she is”, and not anxious to run.

            One reason is that, in Brylski’s view, while Cao might be a member of the GOP representing an overwhelming minority-majority, Democratic district, he still has a very excellent chance of re-election.   

            Brylski, a Democratic political consultant, who has worked for many candidates including Sen. Grey, said that despite the political difficulties, she thinks Cao will win again. 

            “What people will learn about Joseph is that he is more of a Jesuit than a Republican,” Brylski observed, highlighting the Vietnamese American’s six years of vocational work with the poorest of the poor throughout in several Third World Countries—and the ecclesiastical instincts Cao took to heart after years of training by the Catholic Order which he nearly joined as a Priest.  

            “Yes, he is anti-Choice,” Brylski continued, “and he is very passionate about that position.  Republicans like that…But, on other issues like labor, he is very open.  Anh is very passionate about recovery and about the communities of the Second Congressional District.”

            The campaign consultant described Cao’s commitment to education and health care for the poor that more closely mirrors his Catholic social doctrine training than the conventional Republican attitudes of lasses-faire minimalist government intervention. 

            Moreover, Brylski acknowledged the reality that there will not be a sole African-American contender, even if Grey decides to accept the mantle.   State Representative Cedric Richmond, who came in third in the Democratic primary, has already begun planning another attempt at the seat.   And, he is far from alone.  Several Black politicians are openly considering jumping into the race.

            What is not entirely clear is whether Richmond and All of the others will run in the Democratic primary or choose to stand as Independents in the 2010 General Election.  

            As one political insider put it, “There were more than a few African-American elected officials hitting their foreheads on the night of December 6^th wondering why they didn’t just qualify as an Independent candidate.  They could have had a free shot, and been elected to Congress.  They aren’t going to go through some jungle closed Democratic primary when they can be one of the contenders on election day itself.”

            In that reality exists Joseph Cao’s primary chance to win the Second Congressional District once more in 2010. 

            An official Black Democratic Candidate will not just face Cao, but he or she will be joined by at least one other African-American elected official, running as an Independent, perhaps even two.  Moreover, several white Democrats have also privately considered jumping into the race.  

            Thanks to the return to the Closed Primary System by legislative statute in 2006, all of the candidates of each party and any independents run together in the general election.  Whoever gains the most votes, wins, regardless of whether they have reached the 50% threshold. 

            It is a “first past the post” election system, popular in other English-speaking nations, but unusual in Louisiana.   Consequently, with a crowded field of contenders, Cao could emerge victorious with less than 35% of the vote. 

            The worry that moderate to high Black turnout could revert the Second to Democratic control would dissipate as a crowded field of African-American politicians cut that minority vote up amongst themselves.   The fifteen percent of Republican registration in the District merged with incumbent-happy white and Vietnamese Democrats and Independents could win Cao another term.

            Then, as Louisiana is scheduled to loose another Congressional seat after the 2010 census, a Republican Governor and GOP leaning legislature would probably draw his seat to include other portions of New Orleans and current GOP parts of Charlie Melancon’s district in St. Bernard and Plaquemines Parishes.  That would make his tenure in the U.S. House of Representatives assured in the long term.

            In fact, discussions are reportedly already underway within the Justice Department to allow either a reduced Black registration in the Second District, or to all the Louisiana Legislature to draw a new Black Majority District from Baton Rouge to Ruston if need arises.  

            Yet, Cao does have to do more than just rely on a divided electorate to win a second term.    He has to embrace his own moderate attitudes and parlay his good will into a position of prominence both locally and nationally that will provided the fundraising and general resources to have a real probability of re-election come 2010.

            For a Republican, this is a difficult task, requiring the execution of three successful strategies: a general reachout to existing powerbases within the African-American Political organizations and the Black Press, earning early support of prominent Democratic (particularly African-American) politicians, and capitalizing on expanding goodwill with White Democratic leaders (particularly union and interest groups). 

            The key is to do all of the above without compromising the Congressman’s ideals or Conservative voting interests that earn him financial backing from GOP circles nationally.   Yet, it can be done.  

            For all the Democratic leaning of the district, Cao’s politics are not actually that far away from the average constituent’s.  In 1996, Bill Jefferson won his race on a platform against Karen Carter that was blatantly pro-life (amongst other reasons).

            Even Cao’s Asian race is not the biggest stumbling block in the Black Majority area.   There will be a slew of African-American challengers undoubtedly in two years.   However, Lindy Boggs held the 2^nd District with racial dynamics near the end of her terms of equally daunting heights in minority registration. 

            The challenge for Cao is to convince younger African-Americans and white liberals who voted for him that it is okay to continue to cast their ballots for a Republican again.   Call it the Arlen Specter Strategy.  

            The Pennsylvania Senator has managed to enjoy extensive support from Labor, Minority, and Democratic leaders for years, and is poised to win re-election from a state usually unfriendly to Republicans.

            How he did it and how Cao and his team could replicate that success is critical to not only winning re-election, but connecting with the constituents and adequately representing them in Washington. 

            It involves a carefully constructed image of non-partisan reform that Specter on an individual basis nurtured for years, from the time that he was a District Attorney.   Individual interviews, careful fostering of reporters, and a general open attitude towards the press—which so many politicians attempt but rarely accomplish due to a lack of qualified media outreach expertise.

            Yet, such a media strategy is only the beginning.   A Congressman must work to develop links in the union/labor locals in the district and provide enough attention to neutralize AFL-CIO financial and organizational opposition in two years.  

            Louisiana AFL-CIO President Tiger Hammond’s advocacy of Jefferson, in highly publicized TV commercials throughout November, was the strongest card that the incumbent had.  Still, despite this anti-Cao position in 2008, it is possible--thanks to a general union unwillingness to challenge incumbents--to neutralize the AFL-CIO endorsement in two years.

            Several of the leaders of the affiliated union locals privately admitted to The Louisiana Weekly that they believed that Hammond took too public a position in support of Jefferson.  They are willing to work with Cao, they said. 

            They may not embrace his candidacy, but a no-endorsement from Labor in 2010—a move that would arrest a considerable amount of campaign funding to probable Democratic Challengers—would be enough to give the Republican an advantage.

            According to sources close to the Congressman, Cao has already begun to build individual relationships with a few of the 20 of the local heads constituting the LA AFL-CIO.

            Of equal import, though, is building relationships with the powerbases in the Black Community.   The new Congressman does not need the open support of many of these leaders in 2010, but simply their non-interference.  If many of the local African-American political organizations refrain from conducting turnout opeations on the ground in the next election, Cao could construct his plurality from the remaining Chronic voters, with whom he enjoys a great popularity already.

            The simple advantage to Cao is that he will receive, as he has already begun to, checks from countless members nationwide of the 1.5 million strong Vietnamese-American communities.  He is their standard-bearer and their hero.  In the last election, few Vietmanese leaders in the strongholds of the immigrant community believed Cao had a chance.  They contributed little to his campaign. 

            Already, though, that trend has begun to reverse, and, by the elections in two years, thousands of little old Vietnamese ladies will be writing ten dollar checks, an Obama-like grassroots enthusiasm will build if the fundraising results of the last two weeks are any indication.              

            Moreover, Cao has already become a cause célèbre for a demoralized Republican party.   As one national commentator noted, “Joseph Cao, based on his life experience, may have the answer to middle ground between social justice and conservatism that the GOP so desperately needs to emulate to return to the majority.   It is a winning formula that, should he prove successful, will be duplicated in many swing and not so swing districts across the nation.”

            A Republican party that donated a paltry $80,000 will not be so Miserly next time, giving Cao a political warchest that will dominate even the best financed of his challengers.

            As Brylski concluded, “The Black community should realize that this seat is gone.  Joseph will have it for years.   They should concentrate on the New Orleans’ Mayor’s race and other elections where they have a better chance.”

            Still, the Second District remains one of the most African-American and Democratic in the nation, and as Cao’s Financial Chairman Murray Nelson put it, “We’re not leaving anything to chance.  We’re working as a hard as we can to win the confidence of the voters…Joseph is putting four offices throughout the district, even in Kenner.  Most of the people in South Kenner didn’t even know that they were in the Second District.  Joseph will make sure they do.”

Call in your responses to this article.  Christopher Tidmore is on the radio weekdays from 7-9 AM on WBSL 1190 AM.  Call in your thoughts toll free, 877-622-1190.  He has requested that Bayoubuzz republish his article.

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